SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Apr 10 08:08 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Apr 10 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Apr 17 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,350 Primaries, 18,546 Secondaries (30,961 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
45175 CYGNUS NG-13 [+] 0.402 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
45476 SOYUZ-MS 16 [+] 0.402 2020 Apr 10 00:00:00.000 2020 Apr 10 00:00:00.000 2020 Apr 17 00:00:00.000
44833 PROGRESS-MS 13 [+] 0.402 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
45476 SOYUZ-MS 16 [+] 0.402 2020 Apr 10 00:00:00.000 2020 Apr 10 00:00:00.000 2020 Apr 17 00:00:00.000
44550 SOYUZ-MS 15 [+] 0.402 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
45476 SOYUZ-MS 16 [+] 0.402 2020 Apr 10 00:00:00.000 2020 Apr 10 00:00:00.000 2020 Apr 17 00:00:00.000
11788 COSMOS 1176 [?] 6.434 1.786E-02 0.015 0.062 2.647
07364 SL-3 R/B [-] 6.660 2020 Apr 16 12:56:27.863 2020 Apr 16 12:56:29.752 2020 Apr 16 12:56:31.641
18118 COSMOS 1857 [?] 3.848 1.104E-02 0.006 0.012 13.222
08136 THORAD DELTA 1 DEB [-] 3.939 2020 Apr 13 20:19:41.047 2020 Apr 13 20:19:41.425 2020 Apr 13 20:19:41.804
45257 OBJECT RA [+] 0.354 8.504E-03 0.006 0.022 0.000
45259 OBJECT RC [+] 0.031 2020 Apr 10 01:07:23.855 2020 Apr 10 03:50:45.807 2020 Apr 10 06:01:07.072
44966 STARLINK-1088 [+] 5.447 6.637E-03 0.006 0.026 0.006
44969 STARLINK-1092 [+] 5.781 2020 Apr 15 16:32:12.605 2020 Apr 15 16:44:12.347 2020 Apr 15 16:56:42.096
43253 IRIDIUM 145 [+] 5.852 3.653E-03 0.008 0.034 2.325
40679 DMSP 5D-2 F13 DEB [-] 6.988 2020 Apr 15 12:29:59.467 2020 Apr 15 12:30:01.617 2020 Apr 15 12:30:03.768
08845 METEOR 1-25 [?] 1.896 3.284E-03 0.051 0.073 14.845
41045 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 2.034 2020 Apr 11 17:02:01.389 2020 Apr 11 17:02:01.726 2020 Apr 11 17:02:02.063
15595 GEOSAT [?] 4.981 3.191E-03 0.039 0.122 10.532
25116 ORBCOMM FM09 [+] 5.115 2020 Apr 14 20:58:45.852 2020 Apr 14 20:58:46.327 2020 Apr 14 20:58:46.801

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2020 Apr 10 09:56:05 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2020 Apr 10 11:41:02 UTC