SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Feb 19 16:07 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Feb 19 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Feb 26 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,167 Primaries, 18,272 Secondaries (30,206 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
44550 SOYUZ-MS 15 [+] 0.934 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
45175 CYGNUS NG-13 [+] 0.934 2020 Feb 19 12:00:00.000 2020 Feb 19 12:00:00.000 2020 Feb 26 12:00:00.000
44833 PROGRESS-MS 13 [+] 0.934 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
45175 CYGNUS NG-13 [+] 0.934 2020 Feb 19 12:00:00.000 2020 Feb 19 12:00:00.000 2020 Feb 26 12:00:00.000
23814 REX 2 [?] 6.063 1.176E-02 0.018 0.051 11.712
26931 PCSAT (NO-44) [P] 6.728 2020 Feb 25 13:20:39.899 2020 Feb 25 13:20:40.326 2020 Feb 25 13:20:40.753
00813 OPS 4467 B [?] 6.242 1.127E-02 0.006 0.016 11.725
31368 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 8.868 2020 Feb 25 09:22:08.171 2020 Feb 25 09:22:08.597 2020 Feb 25 09:22:09.024
05104 ISIS 2 [?] 6.509 4.132E-03 0.170 0.550 9.812
39073 GLOBALSTAR M093 [+] 7.265 2020 Feb 25 21:22:06.565 2020 Feb 25 21:22:07.071 2020 Feb 25 21:22:07.578
40022 PACE [-] 2.270 2.992E-03 0.010 0.033 10.424
30031 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.606 2020 Feb 21 02:30:45.985 2020 Feb 21 02:30:46.465 2020 Feb 21 02:30:46.945
06079 METEOR 1-12 [?] 0.871 1.864E-03 0.043 0.154 8.258
41302 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 1.009 2020 Feb 20 00:38:20.123 2020 Feb 20 00:38:20.728 2020 Feb 20 00:38:21.333
43578 IRIDIUM 159 [+] 3.956 1.631E-03 0.015 0.042 12.129
38188 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 3.925 2020 Feb 22 16:59:06.489 2020 Feb 22 16:59:06.902 2020 Feb 22 16:59:07.314
12783 COSMOS 1299 [?] 5.270 1.443E-03 0.073 0.111 14.589
31502 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.030 2020 Feb 24 09:00:55.104 2020 Feb 24 09:00:55.447 2020 Feb 24 09:00:55.790
41634 SJ 16-02 [+] 3.284 1.440E-03 0.020 0.037 14.389
32081 CBERS 1 DEB [-] 3.475 2020 Feb 22 18:32:39.779 2020 Feb 22 18:32:40.126 2020 Feb 22 18:32:40.474

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2020 Feb 19 17:52:31 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2020 Feb 19 22:03:22 UTC