SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Jul 09 16:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Jul 09 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Jul 16 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,531 Primaries, 18,836 Secondaries (33,978 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
15171 COSMOS 1589 [?] 3.579 4.297E-03 0.012 0.048 4.334
44996 COSMOS 2491 DEB [-] 4.246 2020 Jul 12 16:29:36.250 2020 Jul 12 16:29:37.403 2020 Jul 12 16:29:38.557
26824 INTELSAT 901 (IS-901) [+] 0.531 4.243E-03 0.069 0.248 0.000
44625 MEV-1 [+] 0.703 2020 Jul 09 12:00:00.000 2020 Jul 09 12:00:00.000 2020 Jul 16 12:00:00.000
00900 CALSPHERE 1 [+] 5.780 3.684E-03 0.023 0.033 14.616
13757 COSMOS 1428 [?] 6.132 2020 Jul 14 22:47:00.664 2020 Jul 14 22:47:01.006 2020 Jul 14 22:47:01.348
41917 IRIDIUM 106 [+] 7.591 3.674E-03 0.010 0.027 12.283
34035 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 7.517 2020 Jul 16 08:58:21.752 2020 Jul 16 08:58:22.159 2020 Jul 16 08:58:22.566
37838 MEGHA-TROPIQUES [+] 3.542 3.336E-03 0.011 0.028 12.765
29774 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.482 2020 Jul 12 08:24:09.304 2020 Jul 12 08:24:09.696 2020 Jul 12 08:24:10.087
16647 COSMOS 1736 [?] 1.840 2.901E-03 0.052 0.143 11.912
20509 SL-8 R/B [-] 2.231 2020 Jul 11 00:20:08.616 2020 Jul 11 00:20:09.035 2020 Jul 11 00:20:09.455
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 4.325 2.314E-03 0.239 0.701 12.026
39769 RISING 2 [+] 4.101 2020 Jul 13 07:23:49.336 2020 Jul 13 07:23:49.748 2020 Jul 13 07:23:50.159
26034 CELESTIS-03 & TAURUS R/B [+] 2.643 1.463E-03 0.019 0.047 13.146
42761 ZHUHAI-1 01 (CAS-4A) [+] 2.276 2020 Jul 11 12:56:00.396 2020 Jul 11 12:56:00.777 2020 Jul 11 12:56:01.157
43043 AEROCUBE 7C (OCSD C) [+] 1.752 1.251E-03 0.017 0.049 11.672
45738 STARLINK-1474 [+] 1.051 2020 Jul 10 13:13:18.084 2020 Jul 10 13:13:18.513 2020 Jul 10 13:13:18.941
25105 IRIDIUM 24 [-] 1.653 1.221E-03 0.065 0.112 14.494
41129 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 2.346 2020 Jul 10 12:37:08.858 2020 Jul 10 12:37:09.203 2020 Jul 10 12:37:09.548

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2020 Jul 09 19:01:17 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2020 Jul 09 20:05:12 UTC