SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2021 Mar 04 08:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2021 Mar 04 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2021 Mar 11 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 6,438 Primaries, 20,162 Secondaries (46,852 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
18820 METEOR 2-17 [?] 3.070 2.836E-01 0.004 0.008 14.636
38173 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.924 2021 Mar 07 03:19:48.363 2021 Mar 07 03:19:48.705 2021 Mar 07 03:19:49.047
24946 IRIDIUM 33 [-] 6.645 1.278E-02 0.014 0.050 7.802
30265 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.946 2021 Mar 10 10:02:06.767 2021 Mar 10 10:02:07.408 2021 Mar 10 10:02:08.049
47578 STARLINK-1980 [+] 4.638 1.131E-02 0.006 0.014 0.000
47579 STARLINK-1981 [+] 4.638 2021 Mar 08 15:35:20.618 2021 Mar 08 19:18:40.897 2021 Mar 08 23:02:19.170
25504 SCD 2 [+] 0.487 3.951E-03 0.008 0.029 8.951
42679 GAOFEN 3 DEB [-] 0.519 2021 Mar 04 06:37:41.847 2021 Mar 04 06:37:42.406 2021 Mar 04 06:37:42.964
44739 STARLINK-1052 [+] 7.346 3.758E-03 0.008 0.034 4.115
45371 STARLINK-1287 [+] 7.483 2021 Mar 10 22:47:38.642 2021 Mar 10 22:47:39.857 2021 Mar 10 22:47:41.071
47627 STARLINK-1972 [+] 5.774 3.610E-03 0.011 0.026 0.002
47666 STARLINK-2057 [+] 6.024 2021 Mar 09 22:09:51.486 2021 Mar 09 22:34:43.342 2021 Mar 09 23:08:01.852
43775 OBJECT T [+] 7.013 3.109E-03 0.024 0.069 11.974
05730 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.676 2021 Mar 10 11:14:20.118 2021 Mar 10 11:14:20.535 2021 Mar 10 11:14:20.953
43194 ZHANGZHENG-1 (CSES) [+] 0.853 2.497E-03 0.014 0.030 14.004
30026 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.279 2021 Mar 05 01:12:22.839 2021 Mar 05 01:12:23.196 2021 Mar 05 01:12:23.553
23560 ERS-2 [-] 5.626 2.198E-03 0.076 0.135 14.727
31159 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.728 2021 Mar 09 10:28:43.362 2021 Mar 09 10:28:43.702 2021 Mar 09 10:28:44.041
45774 STARLINK-1485 [+] 5.719 2.173E-03 0.012 0.040 9.812
46396 GAOFEN 11-2 [+] 5.124 2021 Mar 09 07:19:27.816 2021 Mar 09 07:19:28.326 2021 Mar 09 07:19:28.835

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The TLE Data button links to a page which provides the TLEs used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.